糖心Vlog

The newest Meredith Poll, conducted September 18-22, 2020, finds that North Carolina looks to be a serious battleground state in the upcoming election.

In the new poll, registered voters in North Carolina were asked about their preferences in the presidential, senate, and gubernatorial races. They were also asked about their approvals of political figures, confidence in the voting process, and their satisfaction with the direction of the country and the state of North Carolina.

Read the full report

Presidential Race
The presidential race in North Carolina is extremely competitive with Joe Biden and Donald Trump essentially tied (45.7-45.4%) heading into the last month of the campaign with just 6 percent of voters declaring themselves undecided.

The voters split in predictable ways for the two candidates. Republicans strongly support Trump, while Democrats鈥� support for Biden is equally strong. Unaffiliated voters break almost evenly (43.1% for Trump; 39.8% for Biden). Trump leads among white voters (+13.4%), males (+10.8%), those from rural North Carolina (+15.6%), and those with less than a bachelor鈥檚 degree. Biden leads among voters of color (e.g, +62.1% for Black voters), women (+10.5%), urban voters (+17.5), those with college degrees, and among Millennial and GenX voters.

Poll Director David McLennan states that 鈥淣orth Carolina is shaping up to be the key battleground everyone thought it would be heading into the election cycle. Although Trump has gained some ground in key groups like Hispanic voters, he is running behind Biden among suburban voters and women voters, two key groups that will determine the outcome of the presidential race in North Carolina.鈥�

U.S. Senate Race
The race between incumbent Republican Thom Tillis and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is also very close, with the challenger holding a slim 1.3 percent lead (43.1-41.8) with almost 12 percent of voters still undecided.

Tillis鈥� support comes from the same groups of voters that President Trump runs well with, but the margins among some key groups is not as strong for the senator. White voters favor Tillis over Cunningham, but only by a slim margin (+4) and his deficit among suburban voters is larger than the president鈥檚. Cunningham is doing well with the same groups that support Biden.

鈥淭he North Carolina vote may determine which party controls the U.S. Senate,鈥� said McLennan. 鈥淭hom Tillis was identified as one of the more vulnerable Republican senators in this election cycle. The election will be close, as the poll results indicate. The fact that Tillis is doing slightly worse that President Trump with key voter groups such as white voters and those living in the suburban counties is problematic for his reelection.鈥�

N.C. Governor鈥檚 Race
Governor Roy Cooper continues to hold a double-digit lead over Republican Lt. Governor Dan Forest (49.6-39.3%) with just under 8 percent of the voters undecided. This double-digit lead for Cooper has been consistent since the March primary (in the Meredith Poll) and demonstrates that Cooper鈥檚 approval ratings remain strong, with a majority of the state鈥檚 voters approving of his job as governor.

Cooper runs well with the traditional Democratic voter groups鈥攑eople of color, urban voters, and those with at least a bachelor鈥檚 degree. Cooper also is the only one of the three major Democratic candidates on the ballot to be getting more white support than his Republican opponent (46.2-44.7%).

鈥淩oy Cooper鈥檚 consistent approval, even as the state battles the effects of the COVID-19 and its economic fallout, has made it hard for Dan Forest to cut into the governor鈥檚 lead,鈥� said David McLennan. 鈥淭he election is about the governor鈥檚 response to the pandemic and, as long as most citizens in the state seem to approve how the governor has handled that, it makes Dan Forest鈥檚 task very difficult.鈥�

Confidence in Voting
Despite the recent concerns expressed by President Donald Trump over fraud in the mail-in ballot systems used around the country, almost one-quarter of North Carolina likely voters state they intend to use the state鈥檚 absentee voting process to cast their ballot this year. Just under half鈥� 47.1% — intend to vote early (in person), while just over one-quarter intend to vote in the traditional way on Election Day.

The only major difference in terms of how various groups have voted or intend to vote is that Republican voters are about half as likely to indicate a preference for voting by mail as Democratic or Unaffiliated voters. This is no surprise, given President Trump鈥檚 repeated criticism of the system of voting by mail.

Confidence in the voting process and accuracy of votes remains high in the state with almost 80 percent of likely voters saying they were 鈥渧ery confident鈥� or 鈥渟omewhat confident鈥� that the vote count would be accurate in 2020.

There is a small gap in confidence about the accuracy of the votes this year among partisan groups. Over 86 percent of Democrats have confidence in the accuracy of the vote this year, as compared to just over 75 percent of Republican voters.

鈥淎lthough it appears that trust in the accuracy of the voting process is down in 2020 鈥攁lthough we have never felt the need to survey for this issue before鈥� confidence in the voting system in the state appears strong,鈥� said McLennan.

Approval of Political Figures
President Donald Trump:聽 President Trump鈥檚 job approval (48.8% approve) has risen since the late spring and now almost exactly matches his support in his matchup with Biden. Over three-quarters of Democrats 鈥淪trongly Disapprove鈥� of the president鈥檚 job performance鈥攙ery expected in this highly partisan political world. A majority of Republicans 鈥淪trongly Approve鈥� of his job performance, but almost one-third of these Republican respondents indicate that they only 鈥淪omewhat Approve鈥� of his job performance.

Among other groups, respondents of color have a negative view of how the president has handled his job, as do women, those in urban areas, and those with higher levels of education.

鈥淭he fact that we are so close to Election Day and the president鈥檚 job approval number mirrors that of his support for reelection should be no surprise,鈥� said McLennan. 鈥淭he only concern for the president should be a slight weakening of his approval among Republicans. Despite the president鈥檚 claims about how well he has handled the Coronavirus pandemic, some Republicans in North Carolina may have concerns.鈥�

Senator Thom Tillis: Senator Tillis鈥� electoral problems are closely connected with his approval gap (38.3% approve-48.7% disapprove) among likely voters. Tillis鈥� approval among Republicans is almost 20 percentage points lower than President Trump鈥檚 approval with the same group. Just over two-thirds of Republicans approve of the job Tillis is doing in the senate.

鈥淭he challenge for Thom Tillis in his reelection bid is to get all the voters that support President Trump. Although he is unlikely to lose a large number of Republicans to Cal Cunningham, his relatively low approval ratings among the Republican base, in a tight election year, may be enough to cost Tillis his senate seat.鈥�

Governor Roy Cooper: Governor Cooper鈥檚 approval ratings remain strong at 54.7%. Although in the spring administrations of the Meredith Poll, Cooper鈥檚 ratings were around 60% (at the beginning of the pandemic), the fact that his approval ratings have remained 鈥渁bove water鈥� indicate that North Carolinians still support his handling of the pandemic. Although Cooper鈥檚 approval ratings among Republicans is just over 30 percent (32.7), his approval ratings among other groups, including unaffiliated voters is strong.

鈥淩oy Cooper has made his reelection a referendum on how he has handled the state鈥檚 pandemic response. With just over five weeks to go in the campaign, his response to this major issue has put his reelection campaign in a comfortable spot,鈥� said McLennan.

Opinions on Kamala Harris as Biden鈥檚 Vice President聽
Although a slight majority of likely voters approved of Joe Biden鈥檚 selection of Kamala Harris as his vice presidential running mate, it was a very popular choice among Democratic likely voters (87.6%). Unaffiliated voters were closely split (43.1% approve; 48.4% disapprove).聽 Black voters were the most supportive of Harris鈥� selection and her selection was favored more by younger voters, rather than older voters.

鈥淎lthough vice presidential selections mean very little in voting decisions, the fact that Biden chose Harris and that young voters are more favorable about this selection may mean marginally higher turnout among that group,鈥� said McLennan.

The selection of a woman running mate for Biden was extremely important鈥�89%–to Democratic voters, but much less so to other key groups, including Unaffiliated voters who were almost evenly divided on that question.

As with the question of the importance of Biden choosing a woman, the importance of Biden selecting a person of color was most important to Democratic likely voters (74%)鈥攅ven more so than to Black voters generally (67%). Younger voters thought that Biden choosing a person of color as a running mate was more important than older voters.

鈥淭he selection of a vice presidential running mate is an important decision for any presidential candidate. This selection was particularly important for Biden in 2020, given the cultural strife affecting the nation. His selection of Harris because of her status as a woman and person of color seem supported by the Democratic base in North Carolina,鈥� McLennan said.

Voter Satisfaction with Direction of Country and State
As with previous administrations of the Meredith Poll, almost two-thirds of North Carolina likely voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country (64.4%). Only one group of voters鈥擱epublicans鈥攂elieve that the country is on the right track (52.2%).

As with previous polls, North Carolinians are more satisfied with the direction of the state than the nation, although a small majority are still dissatisfied with the state鈥檚 direction (51.2%). With this question, however, it was Republicans who were more dissatisfied (56.6%) than Democrats or Unaffiliated voters.

鈥淚t is clearly the case that voters’ perceptions about how well things are going in the country or state are, in part, determined by whether their party is in control,鈥� McLennan said.

About The Meredith Poll
The Meredith Poll conducted a survey of North Carolina registered voters September 18-22, 2020. The sample had 705 respondents, giving the poll a credibility interval of +/- 3.5%. The online sample–from Dynata–used a census quota before the questionnaire was administered. Screening questions were used to produce a sample of likely voters. After the survey was completed, the sample was weighted for race, education, party affiliation, and location.

The Meredith Poll is part of the College鈥檚 commitment to civic engagement.聽Learn more at meredith.edu/meredith-poll.