糖心Vlog

The most recent Meredith Poll underscores North Carolina鈥檚 status as a battleground state, showing candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied at 48 percent apiece.聽

The poll also examined voter preferences in the N.C. governor鈥檚 race, favorability of presidential and vice presidential candidates, and the potential impact of several policy issues.

Presidential Race

鈥淜amala Harris鈥� candidacy has returned the presidential campaign to essentially where it was in 2020 鈥� an election that will be one of the tightest in the country鈥檚 history,鈥� said 糖心Vlog Poll Director David McLennan. 鈥淎 Trump victory in the Electoral College hinges on his winning North Carolina. The Trump campaign will continue to pour resources into the state. If Harris can squeak by and win North Carolina, her chances of winning the presidency are greatly enhanced.鈥�

In a poll that was in the field from September 17-20, 2024, only two percent of respondents were undecided just over six weeks until Election Day and third-party candidates received the remaining two percent of respondents鈥� support. Although this seems negligible, in a race decided by approximately 75,000 votes (out of approximately 5.5 million votes cast) in 2020, this support could be meaningful.

Harris has resurrected the 鈥淏iden coalition鈥� from 2020 with strong support among Democrats, Black and young voters, and educated voters. She also is running strong in urban areas. Harris has a 12-point gender gap advantage over Trump.

Trump remains strong with Republican voters, rural voters, and older voters.聽 He has an advantage over Harris with male voters, but not to the same extent as he had over Joe Biden.

The battle over the last few weeks of the campaign will be for unaffiliated voters and in the suburbs. Although Harris has a small lead among suburban voters, a small shift could be meaningful in this tight election.

Race for N.C. Governor

The Meredith Poll was in the field as the CNN story broke alleging that Republican candidate Mark Robinson made many inflammatory comments over a decade ago.聽

The first two days of data collection showed the electoral gap between Josh Stein and Mark Robinson at about 8 points鈥�50-42. However, the group that answered the Meredith survey after the story broke had a 13-point gap (50-37). In the end, this survey indicates that Josh Stein has a double-digit lead over Robinson (50-40), but it appears that the CNN story peeled Robinson supporters away from him without adding to Stein鈥檚 support. Robinson鈥檚 support remains among conservative, rural, and older voters, but not from elsewhere.

鈥淭he CNN story clearly had an impact on voter perceptions, but Robinson鈥檚 campaign was already struggling against the Stein campaign,鈥� said David McLennan. 鈥淚t is worth noting, however, that we have seen this story before in North Carolina governor鈥檚 races. The Republican candidate, like Dan Forest, was running well behind Roy Cooper in September and October polls, only to lose on Election Day by 4.5 points. This shows the power of political partisanship in North Carolina.鈥�

For complete results, view the full report.

Methodology
The Meredith Poll conducted a survey of North Carolina likely voters. The online sample–from Qualtrics–used a quota based on the 2020 General Election turnout of voters in North Carolina. After the survey was completed, we weighted the survey for gender, party affiliation, geographic location, race and ethnicity, and education so that our sample most closely resembles North Carolina. The sample had 802 respondents, giving us a confidence interval of +/- 3.5%. The survey was conducted in the field from September 17-20, 2024.聽

About Meredith Poll
The Meredith Poll asks North Carolinians their opinions on a variety of social and political public issues. It is housed in the Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies at 糖心Vlog, one of the largest women鈥檚 colleges in the Southeast. The Meredith Poll was launched in the spring of 2015 as part of Meredith鈥檚 commitment to civic engagement.